نشریه آینده پژوهی مدیریت
سال هجدهم شماره 3 (پیاپی 70، پاییز 1385)

The predictive ability and explanatory power of an aggregate model of reported earnings is compared to a disaggregated model of reported earnings by examining their associations with contemporaneous stock returns and future earnings. The change in annual reported earnings is disaggregated into changes in revenue, operating margin, and other expenses in order to examine whether they individually and jointly convey information about future earnings that is not reflected in aggregate earnings and whether this incremental predictive ability is reflected in security prices. This study contributes to the information content literature in two ways. First, it examines the information and valuation link between the operating income components of reported earnings and future earnings and stock returns. Second, the empirical analysis is conducted on an industry basis and over a eight-year period to examine how the predictive ability and information content of earnings and its components vary across industries and over time. The results indicate the following. First, changes in revenue, operating margin, and other expenses (the disaggregated model) jointly have not predictive ability and information content beyond the change in aggregate reported earnings with respect to one-year ahead annual earnings and contemporaneous annual stock returns. Second, the predictive ability and, information content of these earnings components as well as aggregate earnings varies across industries and varies over time.

Energy as a fundamental factor of production processes an important place in the economics system so that providing secured energy is one of the most important problem for attaining sustained growth and development. Non consistency of domestic national product growth with that of energy consumption growth in the country shows that energy productivity is reduced. Therefore for purposes of energy efficiency and energy conservation you meet to apply appropriate policies for the country. Implementation of demand management, policy in line with rationalization of energy consumption, is possible in the content of price and or non price policy or combination of there two. By using an energy system model in the content of various scenario a suitable policy was chosen, and the result optimal showed that potential for conservation in the case of using price scenario was much higher in combination of price policy. But using a combination of price policy(moving towards prices with marginal cost) and non price (moving towards using of legal instruments, standards, regulations and….) can be a more suitable policy package for the country. I fact evaluation results of policies in the content of five scenarios, showed this fundamental finding that by implementing a combination of price policy and non price policy such as setting standards, passing laws and applying regulations in line with increases in productivity and improving technical efficiencies of energy consuming facilities, the country can benefit more of the results of demand management policies.

In commercial competitive highly turbulent world , those organizations can survive that take ad vantage of new Economical opportunities and are responsive to expectations And requirements of customers and beneficiaries. In this paper, besides brief definition of organization tran formation, a new form of organizational structure which is Adaptable and dynamic and is able to create communication In terms of commercial partners among people, groups and Organizations through application of Information technology has been described communications and A part of article besides description of effective factors on Promotion of trend of virtualization of organization , different Forms of procedures of installing personnel at virtual organizations, and the method of giving and receiving reports in terms of five virtual administrations have been stated. And in the end of paper after statement of organizations virtualization trend and its role in growth and promotion, impact of application, of this structure in optimization and increase of productivity and profitability has been described .

The standardizing topic of the administrator's knowledge and performance helps the effective management noticeably, so researchers by considering the theoretical principles and research priority in Iran and the world defined the principal components of performance standards of educational managers and put them into the four general groups, administrators and organizational leadership, educational leadership, ethical behavior horizon, relation scheme with parents and society that each group itself had many related subcomponent and performance standards. A questionnaire in terms of compiled performance standards, involved 104 designing locations, the members of research statistical sample completed the questionnaires and the importance rate of performance standards of approach was determined. Data collected was analyzed by using of inferential and descriptive statistics methods (frequency table and percent, histogram, exploratory factor analysis, regression analysis). The results indicated that 5 factors are the most important with educational administrators which were denominated by the educational management's educators and professors . Researcher's proposed model conceptual educational administrator's was designed as questionnaire and specialists and education experts answer it and model suitability degree and its components in terms of the educator's ideas were determined and the whole model was approved by 4.42 out of 5.

In the hazardous environment of contemporary business, online ventures need to predict the performance of their websites; where everything can be gauged in terms of their audience's behaviour in reaction to online exposure. Designing interfaces without having a good conception of website components is just a leap in the dark. Intuitive drawing up a patchwork of fonts, words, images, sound, animations, colours, functional parts, etc. may not always bear the exquisite fruit. Nor does ad hoc imagination with trial and error unfailingly let this merry-go-round go round. Designers need to enjoy guidelines which cant lead them on! Colour is the first factor we focused on, from a log file analysis point of view; to be continued by other rings of the chain, hopefully moving towards a comprehensive online consumer behaviour model.

The purpose of this study was to design a model for educating professional citizens in higher education system particularly Islamic Azad University branches which is essential to meet the new challenges of the third millennium in the age of postmodernism. The review of relevant research literature is indicative of supercomplexity and extensiveness of the range of theoretical and practical frameworks of educating professional citizens in leading universities and higher education institutions of the world. However, literature review in Iran shows lack of any model or theoretical and research framework in this regard. To obviate this shortcoming, the researcher attempted to design an appropriate model, on the basis of revision of the relevant literature and theoretical foundations and some prevailing models such as educating multidimensional citizen, extending social context of educating citizen, human capital, intellectual capital, social capital, teaching- learning process of educating citizens and paying due attention to values, the sum of which led to the development of an initial model. An attitude measurement scale (a questionnaire) composed of 22 elements was designed to evaluate the initial model. Reliability of the questionnaire was established by test-retest method. It was calculated 85.46%. A panel of higher education expert (n=30) established the content validity. Minor changes/modifications were made based on evaluation of pilot study and suggestions from the panel of experts. Final questionnaire (proposed model) was distributed among the randomly selected target sample (n=480), composed of university chancellors, (n1=150) deans of faculties, heads of departments (n2=150). Faculty members (N3=150) and higher education experts (n4=30). The collected data and the proposed model was then approved with a scale of 4.79 out of 5 through the application of statistical methods of pierson and Donkan coefficient of correlation and was analyzed by using descriptive and inferential statistics and Spss software, afterward. The major finding of this study was a model made up of six main components: philosophy, goals, theoretical foundations, conceptual framework, implementation procedures, evaluation and reengineering systems. By implementing the proposed model in higher education system, particularly in Islamic Azad University branches , educating professional, knowledgable, responsible, and proficient citizens who will be able to meet the challenges of knowledge-based society, knowledge economy, and knowledge management in the third millennium would be actualized. To educate professional citizens, it is required to develop technological, economic, social, intellectual, management and leadership, spiritual, ethical & religious, environmental, global & international, individual, research , political, and cultural competencies through an integrated program in higher education system particularly in the Islamic Azad University. It is recommended that the proposed model be applied by the “Office of Human Resource development Studies” after being approved by the University`s Supreme Council of Planing, through considering teaching and learning (conceptual, affective, active, and instituionalization) levels.